The most dangerous, volatile and very unpredictable place to start World War 3 is not the Middle East, not China and not North Korea but it's Indo Pak subcontinent of South Asia.
Keeping in view the history, politics and military clashes between these two countries. This region is very high risk involved due to their nuclear stockpile, nuclear doctrine and other elements. World War 3 can start with a clash between India and Pakistan.
Relationships, international and domestic politics of India and Pakistan
To know the importance of this area, we need to get in-depth about their regional, international and domestic politics thoroughly.
Geopolitical international alliances and relations
Indian international relations
First their geography, these countries are located in a very prime location and geopolitically particular very important. These countries are bordering China which is dominating the world with its trade. Both these countries have now a good relationship with China. China was with the war in 1962 with India but with China's ambitious international trade plan ok, India and China enjoy a good volume of trade between them. these two countries are not exactly ally or enemies but these two countries have a lot to lose if get into war with one another.
Relations with neighbours
India doesn't have that good relationship with all of its neighboring countries but enjoy is really good relations with the neighbors of the neighbor. They are working on their old ideology of keeping the neighbors of the neighbors happy. Like with Russia they have a really good relationship, with Iran and with Central Asia they are in good terms. Russia is there biggest partner in arms and India usually depends on Russia for the supply of arms. India tries to remain aligned with the United States of America and the United Soviet States of Russia. With the passage of time, they engaged more with the Russian Empire than the United States. But after the 1971 war, the balance of power again turning towards the Indian nation. India with Russia also turns the favor of the United States of America towards them.
The little hurdle was the Pakistani geopolitical importance. Like the United States and Pakistan, both needed each other on many fronts. So on one side is India which is said to be the world’s largest democracy. It has an increasing number of billionaires and also has its own demons like most numbers of the poorest number of people are living in India. in other words, enjoying the fruits of capitalism.
Pakistan in global scenario and alliances
Pakistan, on the other hand, neighboring India is also very important. I will post a whole another article about Pakistan's relationship and Alliance with the People's Republic of China. As it is a big topic creating a huge interdependency between them. Located in the troublesome or in the ring of Fire as American policymakers sometimes before.
Looking at the history of Pakistan. Pakistan became the United States ally in the very early days, unlike India. and with the cold war also wanted Pakistan to be in their group. knowing the importance of Pakistan geopolitically, It could be a huge boost for USSR. when there were no Central Asian republics like Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Afghanistan which has always been a satellite Nation to USSR better relationship with Pakistan could have given them access to the waters of the Arabian Sea. This access to the water could be crucial for their Empire as the world’s biggest Union they didn't have the warm water to conduct their trade 12 months of the Year. And this relationship could have changed the world for better or worse.
But Pakistan turns towards the United States of America which in reward has also some benefits. Pakistan was a member of SEATO and CENTO group. These groups including the members of Pakistan Iran and Turkey. these groups were made by the collaboration of us is America against USSR. And the member of these groups has to increase trade and other collaboration under the umbrella of the United States of America.
Relations with the western countries
Pakistan’s relationship with your distance of America has been up and down. United States of America used Pakistan against the USSR in Afghanistan by creating the Taliban and Al Qaeda with the help of the Pakistan secret service ISI. This secret service was very successful in creating these political groups to engage in Guerrilla war against Soviet Troops and finally succeeding in retaining their presence in Afghanistan. Therefore this was one of the final steps of the destruction of the USSR. Then again the United States of America used Pakistan again on the same Grounds when they need to destroy these groups which they self-created in the past. So Pakistan has a lot of influence on Afghanistan and because of this the western world turn towards Pakistan for their own needs.
Pakistan had a very good relationship with Iran under the regime of the Shah. After the so-called Islamic revolution, Iran has been isolating itself from the world. Even with a very rich source of fuel which can turn their economy upwards. Iran is becoming poorer with high inflation rates because of the imposed Sanctions from The United States of America.
So this is the International importance of these two countries, their domestic politics also matter.
Domestic politics as the trigger of war
Indian domestic politics
India is currently ruled by the BJP Bharatiya Janata Party with its Prime Minister of Mr. Modi. For many years Congress has The Upper Hand in Indian politics and it's the first time the BJP has emerged over the Congress Party in the positive two elections. BJP party is based on the ideology of the RSS organization. This RSS organization has the same kind of ideology as the Nazi ideology of Germany. Which include the racial superiority, cultured superiority unity of the Indian religions of India. Islam to be an alien religion in India and constitution religious-like Hinduism, Jainism and Sikhism kind of religions parallel to their culture. So BJP is taking steps that are very unpopular among the Muslims of India.
Keep in mind that India is the second-most populous country and it has the second most number of Muslims in the whole world. The Muslims have ruled the Indian Hindu majority for many centuries and some of the leaders of the BJP as this in mind. They can see that it's the time taken take revenge of some sort and Unite under a Hindu culture. Also so they have a hostile attitude towards the neighboring Pakistan country. Pakistan and India have been in the state of War many times. India trying to fuel the war again which can unite its population on the same issue of Anti Pakistan stance and distract them from the domestic issues created from the BJP ideology.
Pakistan's internal tug of war
On the other hand, there is a government under the direct influence of the Pakistan military. As a result of any kind of hostility of India towards Pakistan, the Response of Pakistan will be the same as should be the response of the Pakistan Army. As the Pakistan army is the direct policymaker now.
Factors leading to world war 3
There won't be any kind of international pressure to start this kind of War. It won't help the United States if these two countries get into a war as the USA trying to use India against any kind of threat that China causes. So a strong, prosperous India and with good military ties with America suits them. Russia will not lay hands on every close ally of China which is Pakistan.
Pakistan's economy and its GDP are on the decline and with its Government and military on one page they don't want to wage a war and destruct their economy anymore. It will be internal pressure or policy which will drive India to a war. The Indian policymakers think that it is still the Pakistan of 1971 and it will be easy to divide Pakistan. The world has moved a Modern Warfare or a hybrid war. Pakistan has a doctrine totally according to its enemy India. it's all military is totally oriented to diminish any kind of danger India poses to it.
Nuclear capabilities of these nations
First, these two nations have nuclear capability. these two countries will not try to escalate the situation. We have an example of the turn of events happened after the Pulwama attack. Both of the countries will not try to get into any kind of full-scale war and at the same time will try to make their masses satisfied. So if a war between these two countries started They will try to retain the situation. but if they raise the stakes because of their domestic policies then because of the trust deficit between them the wall can turn ugly. The situation can escalate from border clashes on the LOC to the international boundary between them. From routine clash turning into conventional warfare. in this day and age of hybrid War or modern warfare, it will not be on the fought with only the weapons.
With still limiting weapons and armory available to both of these Nations. If India pushes Pakistan which is a smaller country than India towards the war. Then Pakistan using most of its weapons will not have any other option than the first strike policy of nuclear weapons. So India's S400 anti-missile defense system bought from Russia will be activated which will be available in 2020. With that India will retaliate with their nukes. leading towards mutual assured destruction M.A.D.
Destruction and effects beyond borders
This destruction will not be contained in this region. This is the era of alliances as I mentioned in my other article. Which saying weakening force of India, China can then jump to save and rescue its investment and assets in Pakistan. China will not want to give away it's one road one belt Project and will try to protect its main investment in the form of CPEC in Pakistan. China cannot get exposed in its Southern corridor to protect it is going to the main trade route. This tri Nation war can then attract other countries like the United States of America creating a Domino effect. This will lead other nations to join in.
The Russian situation will be interesting as this war can lead them to change their alliances. Russia is the Indian biggest arms exporter. The war will benefit them financially but then can we can and one of it supporting nation. But Russia will not intervene when initial like China is engaged and war with India. If you are two States cats into it then Russia can switch sides and form a bigger block. NATO forces if helping the United States the war can expand to Europe. Expanding to a scale the world has never seen before. Causing the destruction the world will need centuries to heal from. So can Indian Pakistan start World War 3? Surely more than any other country in the world.
Other countries that can eventually involve in this global catastrophe are covered in this article.
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